The state pension is expected to increase by a larger amount than previously anticipated following a revision of a key figure used in the triple lock mechanism. The triple lock guarantee ensures that the state pension rises each April based on whichever is highest among earnings growth between May to July, inflation in September, or 2.5%.
Initially estimated at 4.7%, the wage growth for May to July was recently revised upward to 4.8% by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). With inflation currently at 3.8%, it is likely that wage growth will be the determining factor for the triple lock calculation. Economists predict that the next inflation release will see a rise to 4%, the highest level in 21 months.
Analysts at Hargreaves Lansdown project that the new state pension could increase from £230.25 to £241.30 per week in April 2026, while the old basic state pension may rise from £176.45 to £184.90.
The state pension amounts mentioned are the full entitlements and individual payments may vary based on one’s National Insurance record. Those born after specific dates are eligible for either the new state pension or the older basic state pension, with varying qualifying year requirements.
Currently set at 66, the state pension age for both men and women will gradually increase to 67 between 2026 and 2028, followed by another increase to 68 in the mid-2040s.
Helen Morrissey, head of retirement analysis at Hargreaves Lansdown, commented on the revised figures, noting that state pension recipients can expect a slight increase in their payments next April. She highlighted potential weekly payment adjustments for those on the full new state pension and full basic state pension.
The final piece of the puzzle for the triple lock calculation hinges on the upcoming inflation figures, with wage growth expected to be the likely determining factor given the current inflation rate of 3.8%.
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