A recent peer-reviewed study points out a lesser-known threat to cocoa production amid the surge in cocoa prices. While heat and drought are commonly highlighted climate risks, the study emphasizes that heavy rainfall poses the most significant weather risk to cocoa plants. Cocoa prices have seen a sharp increase in recent years, with a tonne now priced around $6,000 US, compared to the previous range of $2,000 to $3,000 US per tonne since 2014. The spike in prices was influenced by various factors, including severe flooding in West Africa, a key cocoa-producing region with over two million farmers.
According to Leslie Agyare, the founder of Three Mountains Cocoa in Ghana, heavy rainfall has posed significant challenges for farmers this year, hindering harvesting activities. The study, focusing on Ghana as the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, reveals that extreme rainfall during flowering stages significantly impacts cocoa yields more than temperature variations. Excessive rain can harm delicate cocoa flowers and young pods, leading to lower yields due to fungal infections like black pod disease.
The researchers also highlight a clear climate trend showing that warmer air holds more moisture, leading to intensified rainfall events during the wet season. While El Niño typically reduces extreme rain risks in West Africa, it raises the likelihood of drought, further complicating cocoa farming. The study underscores that besides climatic risks, factors like aging trees and illegal activities such as gold mining also threaten cocoa production.
Experts emphasize the need for interventions like fungicide application and improved drainage systems to mitigate the impact of extreme weather on cocoa crops. Agyare suggests that significant infrastructure investments and better post-harvest practices could help farmers cope with climate challenges. However, there are concerns about the future of cocoa farming in West Africa, with changing climate conditions making the profession less attractive and economically viable. This trend could potentially push chocolate producers towards cocoa-free alternatives like ChoViva, highlighting the need for a more resilient supply chain in the chocolate industry.