A significant underwater wave associated with the current El Niño weather phenomenon is making its way along the western coastline of the Americas, sparking concerns among scientists regarding how climate change is amplifying the effects of this natural occurrence.
Termed as the Kelvin wave, this event is not unexpected. However, its occurrence, along with the broader El Niño impact, is overlapping with the effects of human-induced climate change, which has already led to the warming of the oceans and the atmosphere.
Earlier this summer, a smaller wave reached British Columbia, and another wave is anticipated to arrive within the next one to two weeks, as per Bill Merryfield, a research scientist at Environment and Climate Change Canada.
The Kelvin wave, like El Niño, is a naturally occurring meteorological event. In regular years, winds blow from east to west along the Pacific Ocean’s equator, pushing water from South America towards Asia. During El Niño years, these east-to-west winds weaken or change direction, allowing the water to move eastward instead.
As these Kelvin waves reach the South American coast, the water accumulation splits and moves along the coasts of the Americas, eventually reaching Canada. Sea-level data collected at Tofino on Vancouver Island’s Pacific coast reflects the impact of the earlier Kelvin wave in June.
Rather than creating a massive tsunami-like wave, the Kelvin wave temporarily elevates sea levels. It is more akin to a broad, shallow bulge spanning hundreds of miles, raising the ocean’s surface height by about a foot, as explained by University of California climate scientist Daniel Swain.
Merryfield emphasized that the effects of the Kelvin wave are most noticeable during king tides, especially high tides resulting from the combined gravitational pull of the sun and moon. When this sea level rise is added to a king tide, along with potential winter storm surges, the impact can be significant.
The compounding effects of the Kelvin wave, intensified northward winds, winter storms, and climate change-induced sea level rise, could exacerbate flooding and erosion along the coastlines. Past strong El Niños have caused widespread beach erosion in California.
Authorities in California are taking preventive measures by replenishing beaches with emergency sand, expecting the Kelvin wave to raise water levels by six to twelve inches.
Merryfield cautioned that the impacts of the Kelvin wave and El Niño could extend beyond the current season. During El Niños, heat stored in the oceans due to greenhouse gas emissions is released into the atmosphere, potentially leading to 2027 being the warmest year on record by a significant margin.
Various climate research organizations and scientists have echoed similar concerns regarding the implications of El Niño and its associated Kelvin wave on global temperatures.
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