The El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to strengthen further until 2027 and may become the most powerful ever, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather conditions in the coming year, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Celeste Saulo, the Secretary-General of the WMO, mentioned during a press briefing in Geneva that if the current trend continues, it could surpass any previous occurrences observed over the last four decades.
The UN weather agency has stated that there is nearly a 100% chance that El Niño will persist through February 2027, driven by abnormally warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This level of certainty expressed by the WMO is unprecedented. A severe El Niño event has the potential to significantly impact global rainfall and temperature patterns, leading to extreme weather events such as typhoons.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the unprecedented nature of the current El Niño, referring to it as a “supersized” phenomenon that is heating up the planet. El Niño, characterized by periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific due to weakened trade winds, occurs naturally every two to seven years and typically lasts up to 12 months, causing severe weather fluctuations across Latin America.
This year’s El Niño has already affected agriculture in tropical regions, triggering a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor. The WMO predicts that the intensity of the phenomenon will peak towards the end of this year, with lingering effects expected to continue into 2027, resulting in elevated global temperatures. Saulo highlighted the WMO’s increased focus on preparedness and early warning systems to mitigate potential impacts.
The WMO is collaborating with various partners within the United Nations and humanitarian organizations to provide essential climate information for disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors, including agriculture, health, energy, and water resources.